In what’s expected to be a record month for consumer vehicle spending, total new vehicle sales in July are projected to rise 3.2% over July 2024, according to a July 23 sales forecast from J.D. Power and data analytics firm GlobalData.
When not adjusted for the number of selling days, combined retail and non-retail sales are expected to rise 7.4% year-over-year. July 2025 has one fewer selling day than July 2024 due to weekends and holidays.
Retail sales alone are set to post an even stronger gain. New vehicle purchases made directly by consumers in July are forecast to increase 4.1% over July 2024 — or 8.2% if not adjusting for the difference in number of selling days. Projections are based on sales data from the first 16 days of the month.
Yet according to J.D. Power, several external factors obscure the true strength of the sales growth.
“The retail sales growth in July is, at first glance, strong,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, said in a statement. But he said it is “even more so” after considering factors, including last year’s June dealer outage that inflated sales results in July 2024. King said vehicle sales that pulled forward this spring due to tariff concerns are now being paid back and an industry-wide reduction in incentives have impacted sales this month. However, the impending expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credit on Sept. 30. has helped to boost sales in July, as customers move up their purchase timelines.
In addition to rising sales volumes, vehicle transaction prices have also increased, J.D. Power reported. The average new vehicle retail purchase price is forecast to reach $45,063 in July, an increase of $938 or 2% compared to July 2024. While total consumer spending on new vehicles is expected to hit $49.8 billion this month, a record for July.
Much of this spending reflects manufacturers’ continued focus on retail over fleet sales. “[M]anufacturers continue to prioritize retail buyers over the historically less-profitable fleet channel,” King said, noting that even as sales numbers hit records, fleet sales are projected to decline 0.8% year-over-year.
Looking ahead, analysts caution that future sales data will likely be influenced by U.S. tariffs on imported vehicles and parts, as manufacturers anticipate slower sales and reduce their imports. King said tariffs are increasing new vehicle prices by an average $4,275, though impacts on individual models “vary widely,” he said.
Tariffs have also affected manufacturer incentive programs, per the analysis, with the average discount package in July down to 6.1% of vehicle price, compared to 6.2% in July 2024.
